Future of Cities Environment: As more and more population and wealth are concentrated in the cities, their footprints are also increasing and in turn, the question of the quality of cities’ environment is arising among urban environmentalists. Here the quality of the environment means the quality of air, water, etc. in the cities.
In this regard, several initiatives like “low carbon cities”, green building, and green economy are being taken (albeit on a piecemeal basis) but environmental resources are still depleting rapidly. As a result, in most cities (of both developed and developing countries), environmental resources are running out of demand, and given the business-as-usual policy, they will continue to do so in the future. Not only the quantity of the resources is reducing but also the quality of the same is deteriorating.
Table: Air Quality in the Major Indian Cities
| Average | Annual | (ug/m3) | |
| Cities | So2 | No2 | SPM |
| Hyderabad | 5 | 24 | 79* |
| Bangalore | 14 | 31 | 89* |
| Mumbai | 4 | 19 | 97* |
| Chennai | 9 | 15 | 59 |
| Kolkata | 11 | 62* | 99* |
| Delhi | 5 | 55* | 261* |
*Concentration exceeding National Ambient Air Quality Standard
The direct impact of city growth is air pollution. From the table, it is clear that in India, the concentration of SPM in most cities is higher than the permissible limit (National Ambient Air Quality Standards). The direct effect of high SPM concentration in the air is asthma, bronchitis, lung cancer, etc.
The main reason behind this high concentration of SPM is vehicular pollution which contributes 70 to 80 per cent of pollutants in the air in the large cities of India. As the number of private vehicles is increasing day by day, the concentration of SPM is also increasing simultaneously, and given this trend, it can safely be commented that in the near future air quality of the cities would be further deteriorated.
In different cities, several initiatives (such as the use of compressed natural gas in the autos, taxies, and buses in Delhi) have already been taken to combat the impact of the transportation sector on air pollution but such initiatives fail to serve the purpose partly because these (the initiatives) are piecemeal in nature.
Along with such initiatives, the increase in private cars should be checked. While most countries have imposed several restrictions on the use of private cars in their cities, in India, there is no restriction on the use of private cars (Sivaramakrishnan, 2015) rather it encourages the production of more polluting diesel cars (Mahadevia, 2001).
As developing countries are adopting SAPs, they seek to increase the growth of their economy at any cost. As a result, polluting industries are coming up in a big way and almost all these industrial activities are concentrated in the metropolitan areas in turn, not only air pollution is occurring in the cities but also rising emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the industries is leading to the global warming.
According to an estimate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by 2010 average global temperature will rise by 40 C (Moriarty and Honnery, 2015).
Environmentalists believe that this global warming will have a huge far-reaching impact on the cities. Because of global warming, tropical diseases will spread toward the temperate regions. Global warming-induced sea level rise will cause the submergence of several coastal cities (or part of such cities). Extreme atmospheric events like floods, droughts, cyclones, cloud bursts, etc will increase in the future (Ravi, 2008; Sharma and Tomar, 2010).
From the table, it is clear that flooding is a major issue of concern in most south Asian cities. Further increase of this hazard will cause huge loss of life and properties in the near future if serious adaptive measures are not taken.
Table: Number of Cities in South Asia Affected by Each of the four Major Hazards
| EV | E | N | TS | |
| Countries | Earthquakes | Flooding | Cyclones | Landslides |
| Afghanistan (6 total cities) (%) | 6 (100) | 4 (67) | 0 (0) | 2 (33) |
| Bangladesh (28 total cities) (%) | 24 (85) | 26 (92) | 5 (17) | 2 (7) |
| India (144 total cities) (%) | 40 (27) | 120 (83) | 7 (4) | 52 (36) |
| Nepal (5 total cities) (%) | 5 (100) | 3 (60) | 0 (0) | 3 (60) |
| Pakistan (50 total cities) (%) | 49 (98) | 34 (68) | 1 (2) | 9 (18) |
| Total (233 total cities) (%) | 124 (53) | 187 (80) | 13 (5) | 68 (29) |
Increasing rates of solid waste generation and their poor management lead to many environmental disorders like bad odour, soil pollution, pollution in the micro-environment, etc. From the tables, it is evident that per capita waste generation increases with the increase of per capita income (table) and population size of the cities (table).
Therefore, it can be said as cities will grow and wealth concentration rise, more and more solid waste will be generated. Given the rate of 2.7 to 3.5 per cent urban growth per year waste generation will increase by more than 5 per cent (Asnani, 2006, p. 161), and in the future within the solid wastes, the concentration of “e-wastes” will increase which are highly harmful to the environment. In the absence of landfill sites, dumping this enormous quantity of solid waste will seriously affect the city’s environment in the future.
Table: Waste Generation Rates in Developing and Developed Countries
| Countries | Current Municipal Solid Waste generation (kg/capita/day) |
| Low-Income Countries | 0.64 |
| Myanmar | 0.45 |
| India | 0.46 |
| China | 0.79 |
| Sri Lanka | 0.89 |
| Middle-Income Countries | 0.73 |
| Philippines | 0.52 |
| Malaysia | 0.81 |
| Thailand | 1.1 |
| High-Income Countries | 1.64 |
| Singapore | 1.1 |
| Japan | 1.47 |
| USA | 2 |
| Hong Kong | 5.07 |
Table: Waste Generation Per Capita in Indian Cities
| Population Range (in million) | Average per capita waste generation gms/capita/day |
| .1 to .5 | 210 |
| .5 to 1 | 250 |
| 1 to 2 | 270 |
| 2 to 5 | 350 |
| 5 plus | 500 |
Concerning the cities’ future environment, the quality and availability of water is another major area of concern. It is needless to mention that indiscriminate disposal of industrial and municipal wastes in the rivers and water bodies, directly influences the quality of urban water.
However, in the near future, the availability of water in the cities is under severe threat because of the overuse of groundwater, the growing construction of high-rise buildings which leads to “dewatering”, the spread of built-up area which reduces the recharge of groundwater, increasing blockage of lateral flow of water from the river bed due to construction activities on the river bed, etc.
Already many big cities of India (except Kolkata) supply of water from domestic sources is running out of their daily freshwater demand, as a result, they are drawing water from distant sources while five decades before all these cities were self-sufficient in their water needs.
Transportation of water from distant sources not only aggravates the wastage of water because of leakage and other things but also increases the chance of contamination. For example, Delhi draws water from Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh- some 300 kilometres away and “unaccounted-for water losses are more than 44 per cent” (Revi, 2008, p. 214).
Lastly, concerning the future of cities’ environment, the proposition of the environmental Kuznets Curve is important to note. According to it, there is an inverted U shape relationship between the gross national product of a country and its environmental pollution. Thus, an increase in per capita income beyond a threshold will lead to a decrease the environmental pollution as stringent environmental rules and regulations would be followed.
Therefore, according to this theory, cities of developing countries need not be worried about their ever-deteriorating environment and as environmental pollution is “self-correcting” in nature. But this theory has several drawbacks. More often than not, the damages made to the environment are irreversible. Thus, the cities of developing countries should not be allowed to continue to pollute their environment before their per capita income crosses the critical limit.
The applicability of the concept itself is questionable in developing countries as they have adopted the SAPs which will resist them to follow stringent environmental rules and regulations. Hence, it is uncertain that the curve will dip at all even if per capita income rises above the threshold.